The hype is over: Is affiliate marketing in the US still worth it in 2025?

A few years ago, the US online gambling market felt like a gold rush. Everyone jumped into it, and I remember the industry had big dreams: New York, California and Texas - all potentially opening up with a promise of good earnings.

2025, and the tone has shifted with optimism somewhat decreasing. Operators keep on leaving the market (Resorts World Bet, just a recent example, withdrew from New York) and Wyoming could double its iGaming tax from 10% to 20%. Illinois now taxes every bet individually. Louisiana and Maryland have also recently raised tax rates, and New Jersey is considering doubling its rate to 25%. This shift toward higher taxes, modelled after New York's 51% regime, has led operators to reduce promotions and welcome bonuses, as industry groups warn it could push more players toward the grey market.

Meanwhile, a fair few affiliates have shown a decline in revenues and are laying off staff. Catena Media reported a 39% year-on-year drop in revenue for Q1 2025, citing reduced operator marketing spend and fewer new state launches. Raketech also faced a 46% organic revenue decline in Q4 2024 and is now divesting non-core US assets. Better Collective’s Q4 2024 report highlights flat North American results, a downward revision of 2025 targets, and significant layoffs.

And even sweepstakes casinos (with the market projected to reach $6.9 billion in 2025) - seen as a workaround are getting challenged in multiple states.

Add to that Google’s zero-click policy and AI Overviews in SERP, and it’s clear the game has changed for operators and affiliates.

So, is it still worth being in this market?

Spoiler - I’m still in and cautiously optimistic.

As a solo affiliate, I run a few targeted sites like NJ.Bet, NY.Bet, and Horse.Bet. I'm not a big network - I’m just someone trying to build focused, quality content and organic traffic-based (yes, I’m old school). And honestly, while the market has cooled off, there are still signs of life.

So, how does an individual affiliate marketing site perform in the US in 2025?

Take NJ.Bet as an example. I’ve been tracking data for one casino and sportsbook operator that holds roughly 4% market share in New Jersey. By the way, around two-thirds of all FTDs (first-time depositors) from that operator in NJ are sports bettors. Over the past few months, the site (with 12K monthly traffic according to Ahrefs - though I trust Google Search Console more) delivered just over 2,500 clicks, which led to 262 signups and 134 first-time depositors. The deposit value peaked at $106,000, while sports turnover exceeded $327,000, with over 4,300 bets placed. These aren't massive numbers, but for a solo affiliate project, they clearly show there's potential for state-targeted sites when the audience is relevant.

If you are curious about CPAs then for a casino FTD vary from $250 to $500, for sports betting customers, you can get up to $400. For the past 5 years, I have not seen CPAs change that much.

Horse racing punt

Curious about other verticals, I’ve also been testing one horse racing affiliate programme over the past three months. The early results for a site Horse.bet that ranks at the top for all major keywords like “best horse betting sites usa” and similar, include just 363 registrations and 33 first-time depositors, which works out to a conversion rate of just over 9%. These users generated a total of $12k in deposits and brought in $345 in net revenue to an operator. It’s not a game-changer yet, but it provides a helpful benchmark to see whether horse betting could become a profitable niche.

The deal I have with that horse racing operator is a 35% rev share of lifetime value, but with this kind of model, it takes time to grow ‘subscribers’ and understand the worth. There’s potential here, even though an operator I work with has admitted to me that betting on horse racing has been challenged a lot by animal rights activists.

The sweepstakes illusion

There was a lot of optimism around sweepstakes casinos, especially when traditional iGaming markets slowed down. I tested a few partnerships with sweepstakes operators ourselves, and I even managed to rank at the top of search results for some of them.

But here’s the truth: I never saw any real profit, at least nothing I could call a sustainable business. While they seemed like a promising backup plan, in practice, they just didn’t convert or scale in a meaningful way. Also, it might be a challenge to trust new partners when reputable legal affiliate programmes can block access to your account overnight without paying outstanding commissions for months.

Be careful who you partner with

One hard lesson I’ve learned is to not go chasing the biggest fish in the pond. Large brands may seem like attractive partners, but they come with serious risks. I’ve experienced a situation where, without a clear cause, one claimed we breached its affiliate compliance terms - something we felt we had not done. 

As a result, it froze our account, withheld our earnings, and cut off communication entirely. The company even blocked me on LinkedIn and stopped responding to emails. And I’m not alone. Several other affiliates have reached out to share similar stories.

If you’re just getting started, test your partners first. Give them a couple of months. See if they’re responsive, reliable, and transparent. Build relationships with independent operators who are trying to grow, just like you. It’s not always about chasing the biggest name. It’s about finding trustworthy partners who value what you bring to the table.

So… is it all doom and gloom?

Not necessarily. For solo affiliates with targeted, SEO-driven content and patience, there’s still a way forward. Big networks might struggle with ROI, but lean operators can adapt faster and stay profitable in smaller verticals or underserved niches.

Based on data and experience I would cut costs (link campaigns for 10k are not really a guarantee for rankings), focus on key partners you trust, and create only targeted content with unique facts and details that only humans can research (LLMS never visit individual pages to give you unique info, it is up to humans still).

If you’re just starting out (it’s harder for beginners now, I am afraid), the days of easy wins are gone. But if you're already in the game, stay focused, stay lean, and stay patient. The market’s still alive, it still could be a wild card, especially with the sleeping states like New York - it just looks very different from the dream we were sold five years ago. Anyway, keep calm and adjust to new realities, never settle!