Catena posts positive Q1 as it eyes prediction markets

Adjusted EBITDA surged 191% to €2.7 million, representing a margin of 22% compared with 9% a year earlier. Reported EBITDA also climbed sharply, rising 318% to €2.6 million with a margin of 21%. The company returned to profitability, posting a profit after tax of €1.3 million compared with a loss of €0.6 million in Q1 2025.

This continues the recovery trend the company reported in the last two quarters of 2025. New depositing customers (NDCs) in the quarter also increased 58% year-on-year to 34,573. North America remained dominant, accounting for 95% of revenue. 

Commenting on the results, Catena Media CEO Manuel Stan said he is “pleased with this performance”. 

“Q1 was a more balanced quarter that sets a more representative baseline for future periods,” Stan said. “Viewed in the context of where the business stood 18 months ago, the trajectory is clear: we have returned to growth, diversified our revenue sources and moved from single-digit EBITDA margins to consistently  exceeding 20%.”

Casino solid yet sports lags

Casino continued to underpin Catena’s performance, generating €10.9 million in revenue, up 43% year-on-year and representing 88% of total group revenue. 

Growth was supported by both regulated casino and social sweepstakes products, despite regulatory headwinds including the California ban that took effect in January. However, revenue dropped 21% from the €13.9 million the affiliate reported in Q4 2025, reflecting slower activity and lower NDCs across some top-tier brands due to the December Google core update.

In contrast, Stan acknowledges that “sports continues to be a challenging area” where the business is underperforming. Revenue fell 34% to €1.5 million, with the division contributing just 12% of total revenue. Despite this, NDCs in the segment increased by 15% quarter-on-quarter. Profitability also improved significantly, with adjusted EBITDA reaching €0.4 million and a margin of 30% following a loss in the prior year.

Diversification and subaffiliation 

During the quarter, Catena continued to grow its CRM initiatives in the casino segment, with the launch of the PlayPerks loyalty product on PlayUSA.com in January delivering encouraging early results. The company aims to expand similar CRM-driven engagement tools across its portfolio to increase user loyalty and recurring monetisation.

Subaffiliation remained key, with revenue growing strongly year-on-year, although it declined quarter-on-quarter due to a slow start for the MRKTPLAYS platform and similar SEO challenges affecting partner sites.

In January, the affiliate also launched an enhanced version of its subaffiliation offering, MRKTPLAYS+. It expects to begin deploying capital into this initiative in the near term as it builds out the platform.

Prediction markets present growth

As sports struggles, Stan believes prediction markets “represent arguably the most significant growth opportunity”. The company has already secured agreements with leading operators and is developing content tailored to this emerging segment. It attributes the growth in sports NDCs in Q1 to increased player interest in the sector and the February Super Bowl. 

The CEO notes that although cost-per-acquisition rates in prediction markets currently remain lower than in traditional sports betting, these are expected to increase as the market matures and competition intensifies. 

“A further structural advantage is that while approximately 52% of US adults have access to regulated sports betting markets, prediction markets are generally accessible nationwide,” Stan adds. “We believe this presents the most meaningful growth opportunity in online sports affiliation today.” 

Cost discipline and Q2 outlook 

Following the efficiency measures the affiliate implemented last year, including a 25% headcount reduction, personnel expenses declined sharply, falling 23% to €4.4 million. Total cost base stood at €9.7 million, up year-on-year due to higher direct costs linked to performance marketing expansion, but lower than the €10.9 million recorded in Q4 2025. 

The group continued structural simplification efforts, reducing its legal entities from 13 in 2020 towards a target of five based in Malta and the US. In addition, it began offering a staff bonus programme in Q1, reflecting the team’s confidence in its operating strategy and continued efforts. 

Looking at Q2, Catena sees the upcoming launch of regulated online gambling in Alberta on 13 July as a key growth catalyst, particularly given the combined casino and sports rollout and the proximity of unregulated neighbouring provinces. It intends to capitalise on the new market through core brands and the MRKTPLAYS network. 

For the full year, the group expects to achieve double-digit organic growth in both group revenue and adjusted EBITDA, as well as a net interest-bearing debt to adjusted EBITDA ratio of between zero and 1.75.