US vs Canada: Where should affiliates focus first?

As North American regulation continues to mature, affiliates are no longer weighing two comparable markets, but two distinct strategic pathways. 

This comprises the scale and commercial intensity of the US and the measured, more navigable evolution of Canada. The decision is less about where the opportunity is greatest, but more about when and how that opportunity can be accessed effectively and made lucrative.

US: lucrative, but for the well-prepared 

The US, reshaped by Murphy v NCAA, which considered state and federal betting laws and their applicability, has transitioned from an emerging market into a complex, multi-jurisdictional ecosystem. For affiliates, it offers exceptional commercial upside. High CPA deals, hybrid revenue models and deep operator marketing budgets driven by brands such as DraftKings and FanDuel continue to make the country the most lucrative affiliate environment globally.

However, that value is increasingly gated by operational complexity. Regulation is defined at the state level, and no two frameworks are identical. In New Jersey, affiliates are required to register directly with the regulator or operate under an operator’s licence, with clearly defined marketing and disclosure obligations. In Pennsylvania, stricter advertising rules and enforcement actions have placed pressure on bonus-led acquisition strategies, forcing affiliates to rethink how they present offers. Meanwhile, in Michigan, the regulatory environment is more benign but still demands full alignment with responsible gambling standards and operator oversight.

This fragmentation has practical implications. Affiliates must localise content strategies at a state level, duplicate compliance processes across jurisdictions and structure their commercial relationships to reflect different legal obligations. For example, an affiliate promoting sportsbook offers in New Jersey may need to include specific responsible gambling messaging and ensure that all promotional language aligns precisely with operator-approved terms, whilst the same approach may require adaptation in Pennsylvania due to differing interpretations of inducement rules.

Alongside regulatory divergence sits market maturity. The early wave of US affiliate growth, driven by rapid state launches and aggressive operator spend, has given way to a far more competitive environment. Established publishers dominate high internet search terms, paid media costs have escalated, and conversion optimisation has become increasingly sophisticated. In practical terms, a new affiliate entering the US today is unlikely to compete on acquisition alone without either a strong niche, proprietary data or significant investment.

In this context, the US remains the ultimate scalable market, but it is no longer an efficient starting point.

Canada: a smaller, structured market for early-stage affiliates

Canada presents a contrasting dynamic. While smaller in material terms, it offers a more coherent and, in many respects, more strategically accessible entry into the regulated North American market. The launch of Ontario’s iGaming market in 2022, overseen by the Alcohol and Gaming Commission of Ontario, marked a significant milestone. For the first time, affiliates could operate within a clearly defined provincial framework that set expectations for advertising, operator relationships and compliance.

What differentiates Ontario is not simply regulation, but structure. As a single-ecosystem jurisdictional model, it avoids the complexity seen in the US. Affiliates working with licensed operators in Ontario benefit from clearer guidance on marketing conduct, including restrictions on public bonus advertising and the requirement to align closely with operator-approved messaging. While these rules impose constraints, they also create consistency, reduce ambiguity and importantly, lower the risk of inadvertent non-compliance.

Beyond Ontario, the Canadian landscape remains comparatively open. Provinces outside the regulated framework have yet to impose the same level of oversight on affiliates, allowing for more traditional acquisition strategies. It is likely that they will take Ontario’s lead should they choose to regulate.

In the meantime, this creates a dual layer of opportunity: a regulated environment in Ontario that mirrors global compliance trends and a broader national market that still offers flexibility.

From a practical perspective, this translates into tangible advantages for affiliates at earlier stages of growth. SEO competition remains less entrenched, enabling newer sites to rank for high-value terms without the same level of domain authority required in the US. Paid acquisition, while still competitive, is generally more cost-efficient. Operator partnerships are also more accessible, particularly as brands entering Ontario seek to establish affiliate channels to support market entry.

A phased North American strategy

If we consider a typical scenario, an emerging affiliate launching a sportsbook review site may struggle to gain traction in the US, where top-ranking positions are held by long-established publishers with significant backlink profiles and brand recognition. The same affiliate may find a more level playing field in targeting Ontario, where they can rank for locally relevant terms, build traffic and secure partnerships with operators looking to grow their share in a newer market.

This is where Canada’s strategic value becomes clear. It is not a substitute for the US in revenue terms, but it functions as an effective proving ground. Affiliates can refine content strategies, test conversion funnels and build compliance processes in an environment where the cost of failure, both financial and regulatory, is materially lower.

For more mature affiliates, the goal posts do shift. Those with established traffic, in-house compliance expertise and direct operator relationships are better positioned to absorb the complexity of the US regulation. Even there, however, a targeted approach is increasingly favoured over blanket expansion. Rather than entering every available state, affiliates should prioritise jurisdictions where regulatory clarity, operator presence and player demand intersect most favourably.

This has given rise to a more phased North American strategy. Affiliates should start by establishing a foothold in Canada with a particular focus on Ontario as a regulatory benchmark, before selectively expanding into key US states. In doing so, they can leverage the credibility and operational discipline developed in Canada to navigate the more demanding US landscape.

Ultimately, the distinction is timing. The US remains the most valuable affiliate market globally, but it rewards those who arrive prepared. Canada, by contrast, offers the space to become prepared.

For affiliates, deciding where to focus first is the most important strategic decision. Both countries are huge markets, but they must be approached with compliance.