Affiliate M&A: why there’s no better time than now

In the space of a few days, affiliates took two hits that had nothing to do with their own performance. Google rolled out its September 2026 spam update. Then, on Friday evening, President Lula signed a Provisional Measure banning online sports betting and online casino in Brazil, less than two years after the market was regulated.

For anyone thinking about selling, the lesson is simple: the value of your business can be rewritten by a party you do not control. That is why I keep telling my clients: "The best time to sell was January 2023. The second-best time is now."

How we got here

January 2023 was the peak. Most affiliates were at record traffic and revenue, and some thought growth was the only possible trajectory. Then came the August 2023 Google update, and many more since. Fewer rankings, fewer clicks, fewer FTDs. I have supported media owners who were generating 15m unique visitors in July 2023 and ended up selling a site now doing 450K a month.

Regulation added its own layer. In the UK, higher taxes reshaped operators' marketing budgets. And Brazil has just shown the extreme case: a market that was the industry's main growth story is scheduled to go dark on 6 October, affiliation and advertising included.

Better Collective, which expected around 12% of its 2026 revenue from Brazil, lost a quarter of its market value in a day. The measure still has to be confirmed by Congress, and a legal challenge is underway - but nobody can tell today whether, or in what form, the market will reopen.

After many conversations with Heads of SEO, one conclusion stands: nobody really knows how Google works anymore. Add regulatory risk, and no-one is guaranteed to ride the next wave without luck. Waiting for "a better moment" is itself a bet.

Why buyers still buy in 2026

Buyers are more prudent - some bought sites that Google killed within weeks, others are now counting their Brazil losses - but they are still active. Understanding what they want is the starting point of any sale:

1. Best-in-class assets - flagships they believe are Google-proof and, now, regulation-resilient.
2. What they don't have internally - user bases, key features, social communities.
3. Owned traffic over SEO traffic - direct, reputation-driven, products anchored in users' habits.
4. Diversified revenue - spread across markets, operators and licence regimes. Brazil just showed what over-dependency on one or two markets costs (around 30% of Better Collective’s stock price apparently).
5. New growth - prediction markets, Africa, new audiences. Groups that lost Brazil need replacement growth, and some will buy it.
6. Sellers' repositioning - strategic shifts require cash, which creates divestments and opportunities.

With more than 12 transactions this year, I have seen many contexts that make a seller ready for the best offer. The common point: the sellers who got the best terms were the ones who understood what the buyer was really paying for.

Selling is a process: time, discipline, focus

Those who sell fast and at a good price are the ones who invest time in the process. Start with proper documentation:

• Revenue mapping - revenue by market, operator, deal type (rev share, CPA, hybrid) and traffic source. This is now the first thing a buyer will ask for. If you cannot show your exposure clearly, the buyer will assume the worst and price it in.
• Player acquisition and retention - marketing funnels, segmentation, retention programmes.
• Technology workflow - data flows, CRM, APIs used (odds, game events, Opta…).
• Compliance protocols - adherence to regulatory and advertising rules, market-by- market, and responsible gaming policies.
• IP documentation - trademarks, branding, patents. Sometimes forgotten by inexperienced sellers, they add value.

And involve the right people:

• Technology: the CTO or a lead developer walks buyers through the stack and addresses technology risks.
• Legal: counsel clarifies licensing, compliance, IP and litigation - and the regulatory outlook in each market you depend on.
• Finance: the CFO validates the financials and the revenue model. An external advisor adds credibility.
• Operations: the COO presents processes and project management.
• Product: the product lead shares the vision and roadmap.

This work gives you a clear view of your strengths and weaknesses, and the material for your teaser. The better prepared the seller, the more the buyer feels it is dealing with an experienced team - and the less room it has to negotiate on uncertainty.

Four rules for sellers

1. Do not sell alone. Get supported by an advisor, or by your CFO if you can free up their time. The party without an advisor usually ends up with the wrong deal - especially when part of the price depends on clauses rather than on the headline number.
   
   
2. Do not sell too fast. Aim for a competitive process with at least three offers; that is where negotiating power comes from. Too many sellers freeze their process as soon as they talk to one party. And a shock like Brazil is exactly when panic selling happens: a rushed sale to the first bidder is rarely the best one.
   
   
3. Price the risk, don't absorb it. If part of your business sits on an uncertain market - Brazil today, another jurisdiction tomorrow - do not let the buyer simply discount it to zero. Separate what is certain from what is not: value the stable business on its own, and structure the uncertain part through earn-outs or deferred payments tied to the market's outcome. You keep the upside if it reopens; the buyer is protected if it doesn't. That is how a deal gets signed in uncertain times.
   
   
4. Keep improving while you sell. A sale process does not stop the business from improving. Build communities, features and products users actually use and diversify where you can. Thousands of active users in your own base add real value - and owned audiences are the best hedge against both Google and regulators, which is precisely what buyers are looking for.

That is a lot to run at once. This is why relying on a trusted partner makes sense: you keep running the business while your advisor runs the transaction and builds its appeal.

Headline takeaways

Google taught affiliates that traffic can vanish. Brazil just taught them that a whole market can. Tomorrow isn't guaranteed. For sellers, that is the case for moving now - prepared, advised and with a structure that turns uncertainty into negotiable value. For buyers, it is the case for moving now too, selectively, on diversified, owned-audience assets.